UNITED STATES MORTGAGE & HOUSING UPDATE
Weekly Mortgage & Economic Market Report
Week Ending September 25, 2026
Hello,
Here is your national mortgage and economic market update for homebuyers looking to purchase with a mortgage loan and homeowners considering a refinance in the United States.
Mortgage rates and Treasury yields moved higher, but several constructive developments remained: new-home sales increased, new-home inventory offered meaningful selection, initial unemployment claims stayed below 200,000, the economy continued expanding, and durable-goods orders excluding transportation increased.
1) Mortgage Rate Update — 30-Year Average Moves Above 7%
According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey released September 24:
30-Year Fixed Mortgage: 7.03%
Previous Week: 6.95%
One Year Earlier: 6.30%
15-Year Fixed Mortgage: 6.42%
Previous Week: 6.26%
One Year Earlier: 5.49%
Freddie Mac said the housing market remains supported by a solid labor market and an economy growing at a healthy rate.
What This Means for Homebuyers
An individual rate depends on credit, down payment, program, occupancy, property type, points, and lender pricing. Evaluate the entire transaction: price, payment, taxes, insurance, seller concessions, closing costs, and rate-buydown options.
What This Means for Homeowners
The refinance market remains selective. Know your current rate, balance, payment, property value, and remaining term so you can quickly evaluate a future opportunity.
2) Mortgage Application Activity — Higher Rates Cool Demand
- Total applications: -1.5% seasonally adjusted.
- Purchase applications: -1% seasonally adjusted and 11% below one year earlier unadjusted.
- Refinance applications: -3% weekly and 62% below one year earlier.
- Refinance share: 39.3%.
- ARM share: 9.8%.
- FHA share: 16.7%; VA share: 12.0%.
- MBA conforming 30-year contract rate: 7.12%, up from 6.97%.
- FHA contract rate: 6.78%; 5/1 ARM rate: 6.10%.
Simple Consumer Takeaway:
Higher rates caused some buyers and refinancers to pause. Prepared buyers may face fewer competing borrowers where inventory is available. Adjustable-rate loans can offer a lower initial rate, but their future adjustment rules and payment risk must be understood carefully.
3) Treasury Yields and Mortgage-Market Movement
- 10-year Treasury: 5.01% on September 18 and 5.17% on September 25.
- Weekly change: approximately +0.16 percentage point.
- 2-year Treasury: 4.76% on September 18 and 4.81% on September 25.
- Weekly change: approximately +0.05 percentage point.
Simple Consumer Takeaway:
Mortgage rates can move before the next weekly survey. Buyers under contract should discuss locks, expiration dates, extension costs, and any float-down provisions with their mortgage professional.
4) Housing Inventory and Home-Price Update — New-Home Sales Improve
New Homes
- August sales pace: 684,000.
- Monthly change: +6.4%; annual change: -2.0%.
- Homes for sale: 483,000.
- Available supply: 8.5 months.
- Median price: $393,700, down 5.8% annually.
Existing Homes and National Prices
- Existing-home sales pace: 3.98 million.
- Inventory: 1.62 million, up 5.9% annually.
- Available supply: 4.9 months.
- Median price: $429,100, up 1.6% annually.
- FHFA national prices: +2.1% annually.
Positive Takeaway:
New-home sales improved while builders had an 8.5-month supply. Existing-home inventory was also higher than one year earlier. More choice and slower price growth can create negotiating flexibility, although conditions vary locally.
5) Refinance Market Update
Refinance applications declined 3% and were 62% below one year earlier. Refinances represented 39.3% of applications.
A review may still be worthwhile to lower a payment, remove mortgage insurance, shorten the term, convert an adjustable loan to fixed, restructure substantially higher-interest debt, access equity, or improve cash flow.
Simple Break-Even Example
Estimated costs: $4,000
Estimated monthly savings: $250
$4,000 ÷ $250 = 16 months
Also compare APR, the new term, total interest, mortgage-insurance changes, cash required, and expected holding period.
6) Inflation, Household Income, and Consumer Spending
- August CPI: +0.4% monthly and +3.4% annually.
- Core CPI: +0.3% monthly and +2.4% annually.
- August PPI: +0.4% monthly and +5.4% annually.
- Latest July PCE: +0.2% monthly and +3.7% annually.
- Core PCE: +0.2% monthly and +3.3% annually.
- Personal income: +0.4%; disposable income: +0.5%; spending: +0.2%.
Positive Consumer Takeaway:
Inflation remains elevated, but annual core CPI moderated and household income continued growing. The next PCE and income report is scheduled for September 30.
7) Overall Health of the U.S. Economy and Productivity
Real GDP increased at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter. Nonfarm business productivity increased 1.4% annualized in the quarter and 2.2% annually.
August durable-goods orders were virtually unchanged at $338.6 billion. Excluding transportation, orders increased 0.3%; excluding defense, orders increased 0.1%.
Positive Perspective:
The economy continued growing, productivity increased, and the core durable-goods figure excluding transportation remained positive despite a flat headline reading.
8) Employment, Job Openings, and Weekly Claims
- August jobs added: 162,000.
- Unemployment: 4.1%.
- Hourly earnings: +0.3% monthly and +3.1% annually.
- Latest job openings: approximately 7.3 million.
- Initial claims for week ending September 19: 197,000.
- Previous revised level: 198,000; four-week average: 202,250.
- Continuing insured unemployment: 1.719 million.
Positive Perspective:
Initial claims remained below 200,000, the four-week average declined, unemployment stayed relatively low, and millions of job openings remained available.
9) Federal Reserve Update and What to Watch Next
The Federal Reserve's September 16 decision increased the federal-funds target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%–4.00%. The unanimous statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace, domestic spending as resilient, productivity as strong, capital investment as robust, and inflation as elevated.
Important reports scheduled for the coming week include:
- September 29: August JOLTS.
- September 30: August PCE inflation, income and spending; third estimate of second-quarter GDP; MBA applications.
- October 1: Weekly claims, Freddie Mac rates, and August construction spending.
- October 2: September Employment Situation.
Important Reminder:
The Fed does not directly set fixed mortgage rates. Mortgage pricing responds to inflation, growth, Treasury yields, mortgage-backed securities, investor demand, and expectations about future policy.
10) Simple Positive Takeaways for Homebuyers & Homeowners
- New-home sales increased 6.4%.
- Builders had 483,000 new homes for sale and an 8.5-month supply.
- The median new-home price was 5.8% below one year earlier.
- Existing-home inventory was 5.9% higher annually.
- National price appreciation remained moderate.
- Personal and disposable income continued growing.
- Durable-goods orders excluding transportation increased 0.3%.
- GDP and productivity continued growing.
- The economy added 162,000 jobs.
- Initial claims remained below 200,000.
- Approximately 7.3 million job openings remained available.
11) Bottom Line for Homebuyers
Mortgage rates matter, but buyers should evaluate the complete opportunity.
- Purchase price and total payment
- Seller-paid closing costs
- Repairs or property credits
- Temporary or permanent rate buydowns
- Builder incentives
- Inspection protections and closing timeline
The goal is not to perfectly predict the lowest mortgage rate. The goal is to purchase responsibly when the right property, payment, financing, and overall transaction come together.
Obtain a thoroughly reviewed preapproval, maintain stable credit and employment, preserve reserves, and avoid new financed purchases before closing.
12) Bottom Line for Homeowners Considering a Refinance
Know these five numbers:
- Current mortgage rate
- Current balance
- Principal-and-interest payment
- Estimated property value
- Remaining loan term
Compare any proposed rate, APR, costs, payment, term, insurance changes, break-even point, and total interest over the expected holding period.
Final Market Outlook
The week presented a mixed but resilient picture. Mortgage rates moved above 7%, Treasury yields increased, and applications declined, making financing more challenging and reducing immediate refinance opportunities.
However, new-home sales increased 6.4%, builders had an 8.5-month supply, and the median new-home price was below one year earlier. Existing-home inventory also remained higher than last year.
Initial claims stayed below 200,000, wages continued growing, millions of job openings remained available, productivity increased, and the economy continued expanding. Durable-goods orders excluding transportation also increased.
Inflation remains elevated, and markets may be sensitive to next week's PCE and employment reports. Still, improving housing selection, moderate national price growth, continued job and income support, and ongoing economic activity provide reasons for cautious optimism.
The goal is not to perfectly predict the market. The goal is to be financially prepared when the right opportunity appears.
Ready for a Personalized Mortgage Review?
If you are considering purchasing a home, I would be happy to review your purchasing power, estimated payment, mortgage programs, down-payment options, and negotiating strategies.
If you own a home, I can review whether refinancing, removing mortgage insurance, restructuring the loan, consolidating higher-interest debt, accessing equity, or keeping the current mortgage makes the most sense.
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DISCLAIMER:
This information is provided for educational and informational purposes only and reflects national economic, mortgage, housing, and employment data available through Friday, September 25, 2026. Mortgage interest rates, APRs, qualification requirements, closing costs, property values, program availability, payments, and loan terms vary by borrower, property, lender, loan program, and market conditions. National mortgage-rate averages are not an offer to lend or a guarantee of any particular interest rate or loan terms.
