Hello,

Here is your national mortgage and economic market update for homebuyers using mortgage financing and homeowners considering a refinance in the United States.

Mortgage rates increased for a seventh consecutive week and applications declined. However, Treasury yields finished slightly below the prior Friday, weekly unemployment claims remained low, housing inventory remained improved, household income continued growing, and the economy expanded more strongly in the second quarter than previously estimated.

Freddie Mac's October 8 survey showed a seventh consecutive weekly increase. Freddie Mac noted that shopping among multiple lenders can potentially save borrowers thousands over a loan's lifetime.

Evaluate the entire transaction—price, total payment, taxes, insurance, points, closing costs, seller credits, and remaining reserves. Borrowers under contract should discuss locking and any float-down option.

• Total applications: -4.2%
• Purchase applications: -2%; unadjusted purchases -15% year over year
• Refinance applications: -8% and -56% year over year
• Refinance share: 37.0%
• Adjustable-rate share: 10.3%
• MBA conforming 30-year rate: 7.49%, up from 7.30%
• FHA 30-year rate: 7.14%, up from 6.97%
• 15-year fixed rate: 6.71%, up from 6.56%

• 10-year Treasury: 5.28% on October 2 and 5.24% on October 9
• 2-year Treasury: 4.83% and 4.80%, respectively

• Existing-home sales pace: 3.98 million
• Existing inventory: 1.62 million, or 4.9 months
• Median existing-home price: $429,100, up 1.6% annually
• New-home sales pace: 684,000
• New-home inventory: 483,000, or 8.5 months
• Median new-home price: $393,700
• FHFA prices: +2.1% annually and +0.3% quarterly

Refinance applications fell 8%, were 56% below one year earlier, and represented 37.0% of applications.

A refinance may still merit review to lower a payment, remove mortgage insurance, shorten a term, convert an adjustable rate, improve cash flow, or restructure higher-cost debt when appropriate.

• Personal income: +0.2%
• Disposable income: +0.3%
• Consumer spending: +0.9%; real spending +0.6%
• PCE inflation: +0.3% monthly and +3.4% annually
• Core PCE: +0.2% monthly and +3.0% annually
• Saving rate: 4.1%

BEA's third estimate revised second-quarter real GDP growth to 2.2% annualized, up from the earlier 1.5% estimate.

• Nonfarm productivity: +1.4% annualized and +2.2% annually
• Unit labor costs: +1.2% quarterly and +1.4% annually

• September payrolls: +29,000
• Unemployment: 4.2%
• Hourly earnings: +0.1% monthly and +3.0% annually
• Participation: 61.8%
• August job openings: 7.1 million; hires 5.2 million
• Initial claims: 197,000; four-week average 198,000
• Continuing claims: 1.716 million; insured unemployment rate 1.1%

The Fed released minutes from its September 15–16 meeting on October 7. At that meeting, it raised the federal-funds target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%–4.00%. The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28.

• October 14: September CPI and real earnings
• October 15: September PPI
• October 16: September import and export prices
• Weekly MBA applications, unemployment claims, and Freddie Mac rates

• Treasury yields ended slightly lower than the prior Friday.
• Existing inventory remained at a 4.9-month supply.
• National home-price growth remained moderate.
• Personal and disposable income increased.
• Revised GDP growth improved to 2.2%.
• Productivity was 2.2% higher annually.
• Unemployment held at 4.2%.
• Wages were 3.0% higher annually.
• 7.1 million openings remained available.
• Initial claims remained low at 197,000.

Mortgage rates matter, but they are only one part of a purchase.

Focus on the right property, an affordable all-in payment, reserves after closing, the best available program, and the strongest total transaction. Improved inventory may create opportunities to negotiate price, closing costs, repairs, inspection protections, or a rate buydown.

Know these five numbers:

1. Current mortgage rate
2. Current balance
3. Principal-and-interest payment
4. Estimated property value
5. Remaining term

Compare them with the proposed rate, APR, costs, payment, mortgage insurance, new term, break-even period, and total interest. A refinance should advance a specific financial objective.

Mortgage-rate averages increased and applications slowed. At the same time, Treasury yields ended slightly lower than the prior Friday, unemployment held at 4.2%, weekly claims remained low, income continued growing, housing inventory remained improved, and revised GDP showed stronger expansion.

Inflation remains above the Fed's longer-term objective, and rates may remain volatile around next week's CPI and PPI reports. Nevertheless, greater housing selection, moderate national home-price appreciation, stable unemployment, rising wages, low weekly claims, and continued economic growth provide reasons for measured optimism.

The goal is not to perfectly predict the market. The goal is to be financially prepared when the right opportunity appears.

If you are considering buying, I would be happy to review your purchasing power, estimated payment, available programs, down-payment options, and strategies for today's market.

If you own a home, I can review whether refinancing, removing mortgage insurance, restructuring your loan, consolidating higher-interest debt, or keeping your current mortgage makes the most sense.

[Your Name] | [Title / NMLS #] | [Company] | [Phone] | [Email] | [Website]